How far will Carien skate in an hour?

OK, OK. I got it wrong! The obvious comment is I chose to ‘tactically’ ignore the current women’s 10km record (look at the original graphic at the bottom of this post, the points on the graph are the world records as of 8-12-15).
But to kick the ball back to Carien: you can skate 40,6km in an hour, so why is your 5km so slow??!! My next prediction is you will break the 5km record 🙂

Steve Ellis (10-12-15)HourRecord10dec15

On 9-Dec, Carien Kleibeuker and Erik Jan Kooiman will try and set new speed skating records. For Carien that means skating more than 36.44km and Erik Jan 42.25km. I am most interested in the women’s record because we have been targeting this on the Icebyk.

Why did I choose the women’s record? Well the calculations show that (a) the current record probably has more room for improvement than any other skating record and (b) the Icebyk has proved it can safely operate at the required speed.

On 14-Nov Eva cycled 35,3km (and possibly 35,4km due to inaccuracy in measuring the distance). Her theoretical target is 39km. The difference was maybe a little down to Eva, but mostly due to lack of practice (2 x 20min!) and the Icebyk still needing optimisation (which I’m working on of course!).

So how far will Carien skate on 9-Dec? The answer is 37.65km. Am I right Jillert? She could skate up to 38.5km but the conditions and preparation make that unlikely. I think Carien has a 70% chance of setting a new record but Erik Jan has a bigger challenge – his chances are 20% (absolutely worth a try though).

Good luck to both skaters, and let’s see if I’m right on 9-Dec!!

I used to have an East German coach in the ’90s who was of course obsessed with numbers and predictions and I have used a few of his methods to calculate my predictions. This graphic represents them quite well:


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